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California Commercial Real Estate Rebound Could Come in 2011, Says UCLA Report

Alex Finkelstein

Posted by Alex Finkelstein 07/09/09 1:53 PM EST

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(LOS ANGELES, CA) -- The survey's results were tactful but encouraging.  California's sagging real estate market is at least two years away from the beginning of a comeback.

The slump shows little indication of abating this year, according to the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project.
 
"The office market survey results, combined with economic models of demand,  show potential turning points in the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets," the report states.

"The dynamics of demand and supply in these markets indicate light at the end of the tunnel in late 2010 or early 2011.  For the Silicon Valley, however, the data are less clear, but may suggest later in 2011."

"Continued weakness in the balance of California's office markets and in Southern California industrial space markets, where fundamentals are anything but buoyant, is also evident in the survey results," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast, and author of the survey results report.
 
"For the balance of the office markets, the surveys clearly indicate a longer-term adjustment process. The near term outlook for new construction in industrial markets does not look encouraging either, but could change rapidly if those 'green shoots' elsewhere in the economy turn into enough new consumption growth."

The survey includes the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Orange County, San Diego, East Bay and Silicon Valley office markets. The Survey and Index Research Project will continue to expand coverage in Industrial Space markets and report a complete overview of California for these markets in December.

Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis LLP, founded in 1977, is a California-based law firm with approximately 230 attorneys practicing out of seven offices in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, San Diego, Century City, Del Mar Heights and Walnut Creek.

The firm's broad areas of practice include real estate, land use, construction, real estate finance, business litigation, corporate and securities, intellectual property, environmental, taxation, bankruptcy and creditors' rights, and employment and labor law.

Nickelsburg says the UCLA Anderson Forecast is "one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993."

More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001.

UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the best business schools in the world. UCLA Anderson faculty are ranked #1 in "intellectual capital" by BusinessWeek.



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