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Debt-Loaded Dubai Banking on Rising Oil Prices to Re-Fuel Real Estate Blitz

Alex Finkelstein

Posted by Alex Finkelstein 10/27/09 2:45 PM EST

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(DUBAI, U.A.E.) -- Like a Las Vegas gambler who seldom admits failure, Dubai government officials are trekking to London and Frankfurt in the next several weeks to raise the second $10 billion in a $20 billion bond program launched in February of this year.  The government bought up the first $10 billion tranche.

Dubai government officials met with potential Hong Kong investors last week, according to Zawya Dow Jones. The officials won't confirm the trip or their meeting in Hong Kong is related to the $20 billion bond campaign.

However, Zawya Dow Jones speculates that with rising oil prices renewing investor confidence in the Middle East, Dubai's highly indebted government is considering raising $6.5 billion of conventional and Islamic bonds, unrelated to the $20 billion offering.

According to preliminary prospectus documents reviewed by Zawya Dow Jones, the Dubai government issued a preliminary prospectus Oct. 21 to raise $4 billion through a euro medium-term note, or EMTN, program for "infrastructure, financing and general budgetary purposes," according to a copy of the document.

At the same time, Dubai's Department of Finance, through a Cayman Islands entity known as Dubai DOF Sukuk Ltd., issued a prospectus to possibly raise $2.5 billion in Islamic bonds, or sukuk.

Zawya Dow Jones says the exploratory documents come as the recent surge in oil prices has sent economists revising upward their forecasts for growth in the region in the next year. Dubai doesn't have much oil itself, but its economic fortunes have long been tied to its oil-rich neighbors.

The possible new fund raising also comes as international investors appear to be seeking out riskier investments after holding back during the worst of the global financial crisis and economic downturn.

"It's far from clear, however, if Dubai will get many takers at prices that are competitive. Dubai's finances aren't transparent, and a giant real-estate supply overhang is still looming over the city-state's economic prospects," notes Zawya Dow Jones.

The news service states Dubai "still faces a glut in its real-estate sector, once a pillar of its economy. After its property market crashed late last year, many private and government-owned developers canceled or scaled back projects, fired workers and stopped paying many bills."

In May, the Association for Consultancy and Engineering, a British trade group, complained that its members had approximately £400 million ($652 million) in unpaid bills from government and private companies in Dubai. Last week, U.K. Trade Minister Mervyn Davies said that debts owed to British contractors in Dubai have shrunk, though many payments remain outstanding.

The prospectus for the EMTN debt says it may be listed on the London Stock Exchange and Dubai Financial Market.

Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International PLC, a unit of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.; Standard Chartered PLC and UBS Investment Bank, a unit of UBS AG, are arranging the sale.

Dubai Islamic Bank, Mitsubishi UFJ, Standard Chartered and UBS Investment Bank are lead arrangers for the sukuk, the preliminary prospectus shows.



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